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Old 10-25-2007, 02:11 PM
Todd Terry Todd Terry is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Bellagio
Posts: 676
Default Re: Top two on a scary board vs Zeejustin in Caesar\'s 10k

It's tough for me, and I'm sure everyone else, to give objective advice in this hand because we all know the results. Pre, I would never fold, and 3betting light OOP this deep, especially against a good player, is a huge mistake IMO, so I'd definitely call.

On the flop, I would either c/c or c/r, I do a lot of both in this spot. No one else on this forum would even think about c/r'ing, but your hand is probably good but isn't going to win a showdown at the river UI, you're OOP against a good player, so taking it down now (and getting rid of it if you get resistance) might be the best play. It's certainly the least risky. There are also metagame reasons to c/r here, if you get seen c/r'ing without a monster hand here, you're a lot more likely to get action when you c/r top set or a monster draw.

I would never c/c the turn, the board is way too dangerous and 1/3 of the deck is going to make you puke on the river. The only difference between c/r'ing the turn and c/c'ing the turn and then betting the river is that the latter gives Justin another card, so I think the former has to be a better strategy. I'd make it like 100 or 105K.

I don't know what to do on the river if he calls the turn c/r, but I don't think he can possibly call here. He's shoving or folding. I think I'd probably shove any river if he calls the c/r, because there's no way he's calling with a draw here.

If he shoves over the turn C/R, you're definitely deep enough to get away from the hand. Post this hand 6 months from now under an alias to get people's real responses to this situation, but I think it's a fold. Your hand looks very strong, I just can't see him doing this with an overpair.
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