Re: Statistics Question (about invading Iraq)
You forget about the probability that they would actually use them, even if they had them. You also forget about economical loses. I'd make a rough estimation that every $200.000 lost due to the war equals one saved life. (May be even less.)
All-in-all terrorists are way over estimated, the probability of death due to the terrorists attack is way below 1:10.000, compare it to the probability of death due to the traffic incidents 1:100.
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