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Old 10-24-2007, 05:55 PM
well named well named is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: i, -1, -i, 1
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Default Re: good river bluff or suicide?

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Is this a big leak to not always raise this flop against str8 foward players?

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It's a good question, and it brings to mind that I have a little cognitive dissonance here. Perhaps a little of Pokey's weak-tight syndrome. I'd love to get some other perspectives.

I don't think in this case if you had AK it wouldn't be bad to just call the flop, but I think if you then raised the turn and got called you should probably be checking behind the river most of the time because you don't expect to get a lot of value from worse hands by betting, and from his action he can have two pair quite often. That said, against players I have seen call down relatively light, or if I have been caught bluffing recently, I might shove the river with AK here as played, but it would be read-based, and fairly high variance.

On the other hand, if that's true, than you probably would expect your river bluff in the hand as played to fold out Ax relatively often, but you're still worried that given the interest he has shown on the turn he can easily have two pair.

It's also fairly villain dependant. Against this guy, who hasn't gotten out of line too much, and doesn't get to showdown too much, I am worried with both AK and TJ on the river just because he has shown a fair amount of strength by betting the flop and turn and calling a raise. A river shove against him is probably better as a bluff than a value bet with AK but risky in either case. Against a more standard calling station I would never try this as a bluff but would do this with AK, although normally I'm raising the flop with AK against both villains.

Hopefully i'm not too muddled.
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