Re: Statistics Question (about invading Iraq)
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My analysis that created the formula. Or my analysis that is second guessing the formula because I have 4 possible outcomes not 2?
And yes that is where that formula came from. Use it every day and then decided to apply it to this argument I was having.
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I'm referring to your assumption when we don't invade. You have listed two possibilities:
1) They have WMD and kill 8 million people. It is important to assume here that if we don't invade and they did have WMD they would surely kill 8 million people in New York.
2) They don't have WMD and no one dies.
Two possibilities so they must each have a 1/2 chance of happening, right?
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