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I'm not a huge fan of their method, but playoffstatus.com has Cleveland at about 17% to win the division.
Pitt 62%
Cle 17%
Bal 15%
Cin 4%
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html
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So the Chiefs = 56% chance of playoffs and either the Broncs or the charge reach a total of 59% (assuming there is no crossover). I don't buy it.