[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]


I agree it's a fold, but I really don't think these make much of a difference. I mean, unless you're sirwatts or someone, no one is folding 88+ to a shove. Maybe they fold a couple extra flipping hands, but that really doesn't make much of a difference. If anything, being at a stationy table that thinks you're aggressive makes this push better/good.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I was thinking about at what stack size we want people to call with overcards and when we would rather they fold (Based on EV only, ignoring variance and risk) so I did a few calcs.

The following is assuming no antes.

SB = Small Blind
Y is our stack size (or effective stacks)

If someone not in the blinds calls, and everyone else folds, our EV is

EV = 0.55(y+3SB) - 0.45y
EV = 0.1y + 1.65SB

If the SB calls, and everyone else folds, our EV is

EV = 0.55(y+2SB) - 0.45y
EV = 0.1y +1.1SB

If the BB calls and everyone else folds, our EV is

EV = 0.55(y+1SB) - 0.45y
EV = 0.1y + 0.55SB

Our break even will be when our EV from a call from overs is equal to 3SB (what we get if everyone folds), so if y is greater than the various breakeven points, we prefer a call from overs.

If someone not in the blinds calls

0.1y + 1.65SB = 3SB
y = 13.5SB (6.75 big blinds)

If SB calls

0.1y +1.1SB = 3SB
y = 19 SB (9.5 big blinds)

IF BB calls

0.1y + 0.55SB = 3SB
y = 24.5SB (12.25 big blinds)


For above, Y is the stack size where we want a call.

How does this apply to our play? Essentially I think it only easily relates to times when we know we will get called by all higher pairs, so we can ignore them.

We can then use the above to work out whether having players behind with more overs in their calling range is better or worse for us at the different stack sizes.

In the example in this thread where we have 13 big blinds, players having looser calling ranges is better for us, we actually would like a call if it came from any player, even the BB.

Obviously, this tells us nothing about our chances of running into 88+ here. I think my analysis would be more useful in late position.

Obviously as your stack size goes up, the higher the risk/reward ratio you have, and the times you get called by a higher pair becomes much worse for you in comparision to what you could be winning.