[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Or to be totally pedantic, whether that opponent would fold a better or equal hand to yours, for example K´s up or Q´s up Ace kicker. And when they call, what proportion of worse hands do they have.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Rob - That wasn't my thinking.

I truly think Heroine has the winning hand here. But there is a possibility I am mistaken.

Against a good player, I don't think Heroine averages as much by collecting a bet when I'm right as she averages losing when I'm wrong.

However, against a poor player, Heroine collects a bet more often. And in that case she may average more by collecting than she averages losing when I’m wrong.

That's the gist of it.

I think Villain has some kind of draw or some combination of draws. After the flop, a flush draw and/or a straight draw and/or a back-door low draw come to mind. Then after the turn, a flush draw and/or a straight draw and/or a low draw come to mind.

All of these draws miss on the river. So I'm guessing Villain will probably check/fold to a bet.

But Villain could also have an over-pair to go with the draw(s) after the flop, or even two pairs, but probably not queens and jacks.

Obviously Villain doesn't have to have any such holding at all. Poker is a game of deception.

But not given the information to the contrary, I put Villain on a draw and if so, Villain missed.

Thus the question, "Does Villain pay off more than Heroine gets burned by betting?"

I wasn't seriously thinking Villain would fold a better hand to a bet. However, now that you bring it up, it is a possibility (although seemingly remote here). Heroine does give an opponent more of a chance to make a foolish mistake if she bets rather than checks. That does seem one of the valid reasons to bet the river.

For me there is a consideration that sort of opposes that valid reason to bet: I'm almost never going to bet and then fold when check-raised. Accordingly, unless I don't mind getting check-raised, I try to avoid situations where that might happen.

But both of those considerations seem relatively minor factors to me.

Buzz