Re: Daliman WONG Teaser FAQ
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Interesting stuff Mogwai. Is the cover percentage ATS roughly 50%? The percentage that the teaser wins isn't nearly as significant as the percentage that hits on the teaser's "sweet spot."
For instance, if the subset went 55% ATS for some reason, of course we'd expect to see the subset's teased lines jump 5% as well. This leads to a false expectation of +EV for these teasers since betting straight up ATS might be better.
J
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this is exactly right and something I mentioned in my post
straight ATS are way above 50% for this subset...significant by any binomial test by a large margin
skip the teaser and just bet that subset ATS...you'll thank me later
they are actually >50% straight up to win the game over 300+ trials from 1993 to 2006, which means the ML is what you should really be hitting
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