Re: Clev to win AFCN
Take a look at the Browns remaining sched:
@StL, Sea, @Pitt, @Balt, Hou, @AZ, @NYJ, Buff, @Cin, SF
If all these games were played tomorrow.....
I'd set the Browns line at:
-3, ev, +8, +3, -2, +3, ev, -3, +5, -5
or
60%, 50%, 25%, 40%, 55%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 32%, 68%
or
4.75 wins and 5.25 losses. This does not equate to 7-3. Is it possible that they hit 7 wins? SURE!!! but how often will 10-6 win the division anyway? You need to parlay cleveland hitting the outside edge of their bell curve with both Pitt and Bal doing worse. Of course, it does help (or does it?) that Cle plays both of these teams, so the parlay aspect is slightly less, but still.
I need Cleveland to win 4 games to beat their season o/u of 6. So I'll be rooting with you regardless, but still, dude, win the division? Doesn't seem likely.
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