Re: Clev to win AFCN
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Balt - Their second half opponents are 32-24. It's hard for me to imagine this team finishing better than 9-7 this year. That might be generous.
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Pitt - plus two vs. the Ravens who they played terribly against last year.
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BAL and PIT aren't going to both go 0-2 against each other.
One of these teams has to win each of these games. But I don't think you should start to look at them as 2 potential losses for BAL...and then do the same thing for PIT.
If one of these teams is going to eliminate themselves by going 0-2 in these games then the other one will have to go 2-0 and that kind of hurts CLE since beating just one of these teams in the standings doesn't win the bet for you.
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Of course not but someone has to lose them, and naturally they don't only play each other the rest of the year so the outcomes don't hinge on this factor. I think a split between these two is reasonable to assume, and I think it's very reasonable to think the Steelers could lose an additional 3 games beyond this. Assuming Balt loses another 2-3 games is more of a probable than just reasonable assumption.
Post Oak said I should assign probabilities to winning the division between teams. I think that's reasonable and I also think there's great value shorting Balt here. That said, I like the value betting a little to win a lot more than betting a lot to win a little if the ROI is pretty close. Opportunity cost and all that...
Pitt - 70%
Balt - 15%
Clev - 10%
Cinci - 5%
These are approximations of course. I'm actually dealing more with a range. I'm also not entirely sold that Balt is more likely to win than Clev and could consider going 75/10/10/5 or even 75/7.5/12.5/5. Like I said, a range, and I think 10 is around the low end of it for Clev, which is huge ROI at +1215.
I also don't know if you can find +1200 or better on Clev anywhere else. I honestly haven't looked all that hard. I'll see where Bodog is when they reset the line tomorrow. But I do feel kinda lucky to have found this at TS cause I think there's a lot of value there.
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