[baltostar]

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The real problem with only concentrating on cost-to-call is that players tend to get pulled into assuming excessive relative stack risk. Opportunities tend to look better than they really are when rated on a relative basis.

[/ QUOTE ] This is basically saying that players who only consider cost-to-call tend to underestimate how often they will be required to put more money in the pot, right?

You say players 'tend to get pulled in' and situations 'tend to look better' than they are. These are not arguments for your point. A competent player will NOT tend to get pulled in, and will not tend to see better oppotunities than actually exist. That's our whole point: if you grant us reasonably accurate predictive abilities as to our opponents tendencies, then we do not get 'sucked in' to -ev situations. And we don't ask that this assumption be granted for no reason: time and again experience has borne out our assumption.

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Not necessarily EV-. Could be marginal EV+ significantly below the avg opportunity expected during the current M-bracket.

I think this is a bit difficult to see if you concentrate on relatively deep-stacked online tournaments, such as the FTP $1M or $750K with starting stacks 5000,3000 respectively.

If you concentrate on the shallow-stacked tournies, such as the FTP $24+$2 or $69+9, or SnGs, all with starting stacks of 1500, this problem of being pulled into excessive sub-par opportunities becomes very clear.

It doesn't take very many unanticipated min-raises, or even 3x bb raises, following which you again call for set value, or combo-draw value, etc., until you typically end up with significant damage to your stack utility.

The criteria of using cost-to-call to calculate implied odds given to play across the flop event can easily pull you into squandering significant stack utility on multiple significantly sub-par opportunities.


Sidenote: I'm really amazed that there are people on here who think that required implied odds for set-mining are equal to the base odds of hitting a set. This is a ginormous humongtic leak, way way larger than the subtle leak for which I am proposing a solution.