Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/01/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (IND @ JAC)***
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It seems like Indy's definitely the BSP side and that Jacksonville's the obvious play, but I'm not sure. Jacksonville just seems overrated to me. They've got the best scoring defense in the league, but are only 10th in total defense which says to me that they've gotten pretty lucky with teams blowing it in the redzone and with the timing of their turnovers. They've also played a really weak schedule with not one potent offense in the bunch.
I think Indy being more motivated than usual counters any typical extra home advantage for Monday night and with the power ratings liking the Colts by 1, I think Jacksonville being overrated due to the breaks they've gotten this year should probably push that to about 3 which just so happens to be the exact line.
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So what about 3.5 iggy? ;p
I think I may parlay Colts -3.5/Over and Jags +3.5/Under. If Jags keep it close it's because they are grinding the [censored] out of the clock. If the Colts get a lead then the Jags may have to give up their normal game a bit, which will lead to more Colt posessions (which = pts pts pts!).
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