View Single Post
  #1  
Old 03-17-2006, 01:31 AM
grapabo grapabo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 313
Default Did I overcount my outs?

Table is loose, a few are aggressive.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

(I normally raise a high pair, but with so many callers in front of me, I figured I wasn't going to drive out a K-x or A-x and I would have to chuck my hand anyway if the flop gave out overcards without a queen. I had also been pushing high pairs earlier, so this looked like an opportunity to mix it up and hope to win a lot of bets if the queen hits.)

Flop: (13 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

(Obviously, when I got bet-reraised I knew what I was up against. I was going to need to pair the board to win. At the time, I was doing a quick 1+6 count of the possible outs (the queen plus the other three suits of the flop cards) to justify calling this down. That was a mistake with respect to the King because that's a likely card that got folded by at least one of the other players. But at this point, to call the reraise, the pot is offering immediate odds of 9-1. I'd be lying if I did the math during the heat of the hand, but I was figuring that if I missed pairing the board on the turn, that would create more outs to pair the board on the river, which would make up for the effective odds for calling one bet on the turn.)

Turn: (9.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>....

Did I talk myself into being a donkey this hand?
Reply With Quote