[ryanj247]

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If you think your opponent is unlikely to play this way with AQ or AJ, you might count 4 wins out of 11, which would let you call getting 7:4 odds, slightly worse than 2:1.


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ok, i have a few questions:

1) could you walk me through how you got to this "4 wins out of 11" statement? if i think my opponent is unlikely to play this way with AQ or AJ, then he has either AK or JJ right? how do i win 4 out of 11 if that's true?

2) are you able to do these kinds of hand combination calculations quickly and accurately while playing multiple tables and timing down, etc? any tips/links on shortcuts for doing this? i feel like i'd have a hard time adding up all the combos even playing live with plenty of time.

3) when i went back and tried to assign a range, i came up with some additional hands.

the first range you mentioned is JJ,AJs+,AQ+. vs that range i'm basically a 60/40 favorite. but i feel that's not a likely range.

"Holdem Ranger" is like poker stove but can process weighted ranges. i ended up settling on this:

AA(25),JJ,33(50),AKs,AJs-AQs(25),JcTc(50),AKo,AJo-AQo(10)

the (50)/(25)/(10) indicate that the opponent would likely play those hands this way that % of the time. not sure if i'm doing the weighting correctly, but i'm trying to account for the hands that opponent would be less likely to show up with here. certainly in addition to JJ & AJ+, almost every decent opponent will play AA this way sometimes, and 33 & JcTc this way quite a bit. vs this range, i'm about a 60/40 dog.

if an opponent would never CRAI in here with AQ, then i'm a 70/30 dog.

so the problem i have is that by making fairly subtle changes in my assumption about my opponent's range, the conclusion of my analysis changes from a clear call, to a coinflip, to a clear fold. and subtle differences from one board texture to the next will have similar effects, i'm sure. i mean, it took me a bit of time for this specific situation to go through and formulate what i feel is the correct range, so how can i possibly expect to come to the correct decision each time when i have only 30 seconds to do this type of analysis?

i understand the idea of doing these range/equity calculations to build a kind of sixth sense that takes over when you encounter situations, so that you just kind of naturally make good decisions without relying on doing any calculations on the spot. but i have a hard time feeling like it's going to prepare me to handle AK TPTK spots; instead, i'm going to be panicking, trying to figure out if i'm a 60/40 favorite in the specific situation or a 60/40 dog (which is going to be determined by one specific/subtle assumption relating to the board texture and the particular opponent...)

so yeah, any info you can share about how you can practically use hand combination or range/equity analysis IN REAL TIME would be much appreciated.

also, suppose i can get to the point where i can actually identify something like "OK, if my opponent would never CRAI with AQ here, then it won't be profitable for me to call". well, any specific tips on what kind of logic to use to decide whether a specific opponent would or would not make a marginal play like that? again, should i just go ahead and go with "all aggressive opponents would, and all passive opponents wouldn't"? or do i really need to be more specific than that, and rely on specific stats, etc? and if i just don't have enough information to know whether i'm likely to be a 60/40 dog or a 70/30 dog to a particular opponents range, which should i default to, and why?