[Pudge714]

Baltostar,
You're argument is right in general except it is very simple and irrelevant to this hand. There are a fair amount of hands that get posted where guys flat pre or call a shove and people successfully argue that they should fold preflop because of the probability of another player entering the pot is overweighs the slight chip edge they gain. However in this case there are only two people in the pot Nobody can act behind you your logical test is based around an outcome which cannot exist unless Hero chooses to 4bet.