Re: Hand from Villians perspective (dont read if u dont want results)
I dislike raising the river in this situation. Small raise to 7.5k doesn't improve our odds against a straight chop much (38% vs 44% for calling). So even if he always folds a chop its not much better than calling. Also, as Jason mentioned this player may not fold a straight chop, and there is a small chance of a rebluff. Finally, by raising you are risking more, so a misread in villain's hand range (ie we grossly underestimate how often he has a king) will cost more.
rock,
I think you played the hand well. But just betting the flop in this situation may be better since letting a tough player have a strong idea of your narrow hand range in this situation (and them having position) can make the future streets much tougher to play correctly. Also, depending on the dynamic in this game, it is probably not that likely that Jason will just fire with any 2 cards on the flop since it is 3-way.
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