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Old 10-21-2007, 07:57 PM
baltostar baltostar is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 541
Default Re: QQ from upfront early in Warmup...Is this ok?

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Nowhere close having right implied odds to play for set value.
16725/1800 = 9.3:1

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Your math is off. It's not 16725, and not 1800.

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The correct way to calculate these is total pre-flop outlay divided into the smallest of your stack and the stacks you think you are likely to play for stacks post-flop, plus any dead money from other players.

To calculate otherwise is to artificially inflate the opportunity by ignoring the cost to play the hand up to the decision point. It's true that by the decision any prior outlays are no longer your chips, they are the pot's chips, but the only way to rate opportunities in a relative context is to use a standard method that can be applied everywhere.

Another way to look at it: Imagine a series of pre-flop min-re-raises by two players on either side of you. If you calculate your implied odds based on cost to call each time the action comes to you, eventually you will be allin and obviously not getting the implied odds you need to play for set value.

Regarding odds to hit: It's 11.8% for a PP to hit a set or better on the flop. That works out to 8.47:1. I like to approximate that as 9:1 because I like to err on the side of caution.
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