Re: Basic Prob Question - Flush Draw
You are dealt suited cards 12 times in 51 (your first card can be anything, there are 12 out of the remaining 51 that match). That's 4/17 or 1/4.25.
Once you have two cards of a suit in your hand, there are only 11 left unseen. Flopping exactly 2 of those 11 can happen C(11,2)*39 = 2,145 ways out of 19,600 flops. That's 1/9.1.
Now that there are four suited cards in your hand and on the board, there are 9 left among the 47 unseen cards. So the chance of getting one on the turn is 9/47.
Multiply them all together, (4/17)*(2,145/19,600)*(9/47) = 77,220 / 15,660,400 = 3,861 / 783,020 = 0.5%.
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