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Old 10-21-2007, 10:44 AM
silentbob silentbob is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 894
Default Re: NFL Week 7 player props thread

I was actually considering taking the Barber side vs. Peterson (my projections suggest they will end up with about the same number of points), but will probably stay away.

Anyway, here are two additional picks based on what Bodog has put up so far:

Wes Welker under 6.5 pass receptions at -125 for 1 unit. Complete overreaction to last week's performance. It's pretty well known that Brady targeted him based on the coverage that Dallas threw at them. It seems unlikely that the Dolphins will defend the same way. Plus, 6.5 is the type of line I'd see for only the top 5 WRs in the NFL (it's currently 8 for Houshmandzadeh, holy crap). Welker is not one of them. He's most likely to finish with 5 catches, even though Miami is admittedly horrible on defense.

Lee Evans over 45.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit. I hate betting overs, but this line seems at least 10 yards too low. Evans has done nothing to justify my confidence, but prior to this year he surpassed 45 yards in 60 percent of his games. Chris McAlister is out, which weakens the Ravens secondary considerably. Plus, the Ravens are so strong against the run that the Bills may be forced to pass for most of the game (even if not behind). Trent can only get better, even if he sticks with short passes.

The pickings are slim. I hope it isn't because Bodog is getting better at their lines.
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