[chucky]

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He has pot odds to call. Additionally, hero should be willing to gamble early because the difference between finishing early and bubbling out is zero dollars. However, if hero gets a big chip stack early he has much more tourney equity.

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Here are some sample scenarios. Most likely we need between 2-to-1 and 3-to-1 to make this call profitable.


Very bad for us:
Versus a set, worse flush draw, spade flush draw, some outs are gone.
Very possible.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 9 25.00 26 72.22 1 2.78 0.264
Tc Td 9h 8h 15 41.67 21 58.33 0 0.00 0.417
As Ts Kd Qd 11 30.56 24 66.67 1 2.78 0.319


Versus two pair, spade flush draw, no hearts are live. Possible.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 12 33.33 24 66.67 0 0.00 0.333
9s 7s Tc 8d 4 11.11 32 88.89 0 0.00 0.111
As Ts Jc 9c 20 55.56 16 44.44 0 0.00 0.556


Very good for us:
Versus two pair, no spade draw, no hearts are out. Unlikely.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd Kh Jh 16 44.44 20 55.56 0 0.00 0.444
7s Tc 9d 8d 3 8.33 33 91.67 0 0.00 0.083
As 9c 8c Td 17 47.22 19 52.78 0 0.00 0.472

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Very impressive. Im going to take an example from Holdem. There is a raise in ep. a mp person calls. hero gets 44 on button and calls. Flop comes Kdtc4d. players 1 and 2 get allin. It is early in a tourney, should hero risk his tourney life for the possibility of being a chip leader early on? I would not fold a set in holdem if winning the pot would substantially increase the likelihood of me making money in the tourney.

In our omaha hand, hero is not calling with just a flush draw or with non nut straight draws. Hero is calling with a hand that is fairly live with the knowledge that winning with good to marginal coinflips early in a tournament is one way of improving chances that he goes deeper in the tourney.