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Old 10-20-2007, 06:02 PM
beyazkus beyazkus is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: ~Fortuna Imperatrix Mundi~
Posts: 35
Default Re: SB defense with KQs

* g *

ok, lets do some math... after he capped preflop we can put him on a narrow range of hands considering his pfr of 7.5%: QQ+ and AKs, AKo seem standard. but considering that he raised from the hijack and could conceive of your 3-bet as a defensive raise then it would be fair to assume that he would cap with JJ, AQs, AQo, and possibly AJs. so taking into consideration his whole range:
JJ - 6 ways
QQ - 3 ways (you have a Q)
KK - 2 ways (you have a K and one on board)
AA - 6 ways
AKs + AKo - 8 ways (you have a K and one on board)
AQs + AQo - 12 ways (you have a Q)
AJs - 4 ways

so on the flop there are 25 ways that you are ahead while 16 ways that you can be behind presumming our assumptions are correct. in this case a raise is mandatory as you are a favorite to be ahead, and as his response to your raise will help you determine where you are at. notice that being a favorite to be ahead doesn't make you a favorite to win the hand, as your op has considerably more outs if you are ahead, as opposed to your slim number of outs if you are behind. so the key aspect remains to raise to see where you are at.

if he 3-bets you on the flop then check / call turn, check / call river... if an ace or another spade hits on the river give a crying call...

if he doesn't 3-bet the flop, then by all means bet the turn too, if you get raised check / call river same as above.

if he doesn't 3-bet the flop, and calls your bet on the turn, then bet the river as long as a spade or ace doesn't hit. if they do hit (as in our example), then it is probably better to check and call, as you will get raised with a better hand if you bet and will have to call, and by checking you gain the possibility of inducing a bluff, or a bet with a worse hand.
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