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Old 10-20-2007, 01:11 PM
BrandiFan BrandiFan is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: The upside of varience
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Default Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.

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From the Wikipedia article...

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The optimum bet for the greatest growth of bankroll is making the full bet suggested by the Kelly criterion, but this produces a volatile result. There is a 1/3 chance of halving the bankroll before it is doubled. A popular alternative is to bet only half the amount suggested which gives three-quarters of the investment return with much less volatility. Where money would accumulate at 9.06% compound interest with full bets, it still accumulates at 7.5% for half-bets.

Over-betting beyond that suggested by Kelly is counter-productive as the long run growth rate will fall, dropping to zero when the Kelly bet is approximately doubled. Using half-Kelly bets also safeguards against being ruined by unknowingly overbetting, as it can be easy to over-estimate the true odds by a factor of two.

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So, not much point buy into anything outside 0.25 - 1.0 times what Kelly Criterion says you should.

[/ QUOTE ]I think that's assuming you can only make one bet at a time. I play $3rs and $109s at the same time even though a $3r is well under what my roll can handle.
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