View Single Post
  #5  
Old 10-20-2007, 10:00 AM
typohh typohh is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 11
Default Re: Kelly Criterion deduced from ROI & Prize Structure.

From the Wikipedia article...

[ QUOTE ]
The optimum bet for the greatest growth of bankroll is making the full bet suggested by the Kelly criterion, but this produces a volatile result. There is a 1/3 chance of halving the bankroll before it is doubled. A popular alternative is to bet only half the amount suggested which gives three-quarters of the investment return with much less volatility. Where money would accumulate at 9.06% compound interest with full bets, it still accumulates at 7.5% for half-bets.

Over-betting beyond that suggested by Kelly is counter-productive as the long run growth rate will fall, dropping to zero when the Kelly bet is approximately doubled. Using half-Kelly bets also safeguards against being ruined by unknowingly overbetting, as it can be easy to over-estimate the true odds by a factor of two.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, not much point buy into anything outside 0.25 - 1.0 times what Kelly Criterion says you should.
Reply With Quote