T,
I think you already know that I like a fold preflop. It's not strong enough in either direction to get involved when I'm not obliged to put any money in the pot. That's more a difference in philosophy between us than a critique. If it were the same hand double-suited instead of 3 of 1 suit, and I was playing folding machines, I might put it in. I would also be more likely to go to town with 34QJ or 34KT for a little bit of high card strength or 3467 for a nice wheel wrap chance.
That's the fluff. Here's the meat.
Assume payout ratios of 14 to 10 to 7, which is the stars ratio for an 18 player tourney. I assume this was something similar. Here is your net worth preflop according to the ICM.(
www.chillin411.com)
V1 = 12.4
Hero = 8.7
V2 9.8
If you folded on the flop and were left with 33K in chips, your equity does not drop dramatically:
V1 = 12.56
Hero = 7.72
V2 = 10.7
If you put it all in the middle and lost, your equity is exactly 7.
If you put it all in the middle and take half the pot, your chip stack is 103K, and the equity is as follows:
v1 = 11.79
hero = 9.16
V2 = 10
You are thinking of putting in 33K, and your chip EV is .99 *206K or 20K. It's a net loss from a chip perspective, but you stand to gain more in tournament equity if you come out alive than you would lose if you died, since your equity could go up 1.44 if you chop, while it only goes down 0.72 if you die.
Does that make sense?