[igetbadbeat]

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The best bet on the card (and in the UFC since Hughes/Gracie) is Sylvia over Brandon Vera. Vera has an insanely low chance of winning this fight by KO. Arlovski hit Tim with probably the loudest punch I've heard in the UFC and Tim won the fight anyways. Vera doesn't have anywhere near that kind of power with his hands, and Tim's height neutralizes the clinch. Also Tim's reach neutralizes leg kicks (ask Ricco what happens when you try leg kicking Tim)

I live in San Diego and trained at City Boxing in the past when Vera was associated with them. As long as I've known Brandon Vera, he's struggled with larger men. He competes in MMA as opposed to straight Muay Thai because he doesn't take punishment well and his straight boxing is below average (and I'm being kind).

If you pick Vera, you're basically saying that Tim's back surgery didn't go very well and that he's a shell of his former self. The only chance Vera has is Tim not coming ready to fight. Looking at the shape he was in at the weighin, that's not a factor at all.

Bet the house on Tim. I got in on this when it was +175 a few weeks ago, but even as low as even, this is still a no-brainer. Sylvia can win this by decision or 2nd/3rd round KO. Vera cannot win by knockout, will have an insanely difficult time winning by decision due to Tim's jab and will win by submission probably 1 in 10 or less. How exactly can he beat Tim?


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Also, something to consider about the main event. I'm not betting the main event, I don't see much value in the line either way. I'm cheering for Rich, but the line is accurate IMO.
But anyways, Anderson had visa problems and didn't make it into Ohio until a couple days ago. Both he and Franklin are larger middleweights, so the cut is important. Anderson's cut was rushed due to circumstance. While both he and Franklin made it comfortably, this can't be underestimated. Franklin's gas tank is a huge edge over Anderson's (which is not very deep at all). In a 5 round fight, this edge will be even bigger.
I think the logic of saying that Anderson has 5 rounds to put away Rich is faulty, not JUST because of the weight cut issues, but it's a factor. Anderson by 1st or 2nd round KO, but if Rich makes it into the 3rd round, he has either a late round GnP TKO or UD practically in the bag. If Rich survives the early storm, Anderson WILL gas.

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While I think the Sylvia line is juicy, I have to point out that the gameplan to beat Sylvia HAS been outlined. It's not that Vera will KO him with knees or punches, but Tim hasn't been aggressive enough in his last few fights and we've seen that his jab is NOT always effective enough to win him a decision. Ricco may have no been doing well with the leg kicks, but I think it's safe to say that Vera's footwork and standup are closer to the quickness of AA and AA's leg kicks were very effective in their 3rd fight. Why he stopped using them is anyone's guess (he claims his leg was broken, I beleive him).

The reason the 5 rounds favors Silva, the finisher, is because Rich's best shot is probably a decision. But remember that a percent of the time that it's going Rich's way by the 4th or 5th round, Silva can still finish it and win the fight. Sounds obvious, but I still think it's a valid and sometimes overlooked aspect of the fight. But what do I know, aren't you the man who invented such genius strategies as timing out with storm? And you train @ city boxing...

GL though, hope sylvia pulls through for both of us.