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Old 10-19-2007, 05:13 PM
MyTurn2Raise MyTurn2Raise is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Evolving Day-By-Day
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Default Re: @@@ Official Saturday CFB Thread @@@

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There was a great post at sbrforum with the winning % of both home and road dogs from 1985 to now. Road dogs from +21-+26.5 win 4.6% of the time, thus needing +2084 to make it break even.

I'm considering adding some $ to my bankroll to experiment with it. Basically, I'd put 1 unit on ever ML dog edge I find every week (this week there are like 25), but I haven't added the new bankroll mobnies.

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IIRC, those will actually understate the potential chances of an underdog as they come from before the 85 scholly limits. I'm pretty sure that even though the spreads might be the same, the distribution of possible outcomes likely includes more upsets these days. I don't have any proof for that, but I think it could be amassed.
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