[EnigmaCanada]

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Let's just say that PG/Jamie's tribe won last night's challenge. If they didn't throw it due to the lead James/Erik gave them they were a lock to win.

Okay, the other tribe goes to tribal, definitely votes out Frosti so we are left with (JRB/Courtney/Todd/Amanda/Denise/Sherea) in that tribe versus (Erik/Jamie/PG/Aaron/James).

I don't believe for a second they would elect to choose Frosti over JRB just because JRB is annoying. Todd/Amanda aren't stupid and they know Frosti is tight with the PG/Jamie/Erik side.

So let's say the Jamie side then wins next week because frankly they can every week because of James.

JRB's tribe goes to tribal and votes out Sherea because once again even though JRB is annoying they don't want Sherea around because she'll LIKELY go back to Jamie/PG's side. I know she's a semi-loner but that's what Todd/Amanda (who are the brains of the operation) would fear.

So lets say they merge at 10.

Todd/Amanda/Courtney/Aaron (strong four alliance)

Erik/Jamie/PG (strong three alliance).

JRB/James/Denise (floaters). JRB is tight with James. James respects/likes (lol) Denise.

All the Jamie/Erik/PG group has to do is offer an alliance with James, who then would get JRB (who hates Todd/Courtey/Amanda) and the lunch lady Denise (who loves James and doesn't seem to be tight with Todd).

James would be happy winning challenges and would welcome a chance to not be targeted by joining up with Erik/PG/Jamie.

So a new alliance of Erik/Jamie/PG/James/JRB/Denise would then pluck off Aaron/Todd/Amanda/Courtney.

Given this situation I think it was a bad move by PG/Jamie. They under-estimated the James factor. His

A) Ability to win challenges.
B) The fact that he's a loner but even though he's a loner has pull with the lunch lady and JRB and that those two are looking for alliances because they are outside the Aaron/Todd/Courtney/Amanda contingent.

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Wow. For PG/Jaime/Erik to go with this plan, they would have to look ahead a few weeks, and assume that they could team up with James/JRB/Denise. How are they supposed to know that they can get James during the merge?

I think from their POV, Jaime and PG made the right play.

Strategy while playing Survivor is different while actually playing it, than when you are watching it on TV and you get to see that James isn't super tight with anyone but Denise and JRB.