[Mitke]

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If you think he can have 76 here, then why can't he have 75? I don't think either of those hands are really in his range.

Q5? Realistically I think you're up against 2pr a small % of the time, 1pr trying to prevent you from taking a FSD some small % of the time (lol), and that 1pr doesn't pay you off while 2pr does. Raise/call would be pretty bad on this board (he'll have QXss a lot).

So yeah. I call.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling this was my choice also on the Finnish site I picked this from. However, as some guys there were seriously considering of raising this I decided to post this here too.

The consensus there seem to be like Oink here said the a 5X is very rarely in Villain's range -> so the straight shouldn't be that big a worry.

Another comment on the straight possibilities was that a straight will not 3-bet this very often -> maybe lowering the equity we need to have to raise(?) as we don't get charged the maximum.

I think 55 and T9 are the only probable straights here: both could be played like this to shutout Hero from the pot on a quite uncoordinated flop. For the same reasoning on flop 77 is possible, it picks a gutshot on turn as well. 88 slowplaying is a distant possibility.

The other gutshots that could hit two pair or straight are: 76,75,65. However, these aren't very likely semibluffing / free card raising hands on the flop because they'd be looking at hitting 3rd pair on top of their gutshot outs.

However, T9 and JT could play this way to hit 2nd pair + gutshot + maybe a BDFD.

A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hands aren't likely as AK caps usually preflop and AQ would probably raise earlier as well. All other A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hands are nearly impossible as even 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is in Hero's hand. Well, maybe A5 could peel one on the flop.

For cold-calling preflop, I think QX two pairs are pretty rare here, Q8 just maybe if he's really loose, as are the 76,65,75 hands. 87 is then again more likely, picking a gutshot on turn to help and the two-pair on river.

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If you pick up stove and weight all his hands that play the flop this way and bet and call a raise, I really doubt you'll have 66% equity (if you're intending on calling a 3-bet) or even 50% if you're thinking about folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Villain's probable holdings are:

Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] > K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] > 77/55 > 87 > J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] > T9 > 66 > A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] > 88 > A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] > 86/76/65/75/85 > bluff donk

I doubt very few hands would fold to a raise getting 14.5:1.