Re: Back to Basics - EV here? QQ Preflop
Hey guys I'm in procrastination mode so I ran some numbers.
Getting 1.24-to-1 on your money, you need > 44.6% to call.
Some possibilities:
A) If he does this with JJ+ and AK+ your equity = 47.5%, making this a slightly +EV call.
B) If he does this with JJ+ 100% of the time and AK (suited or offsuit) a third of the time, your equity ~ 43.8% in this spot, and so you should fold.
C) If he just spews such that his range = 99+ and AK+ then you MUST call b/c your equity = 55.7%. If you throw in AQs sometimes, the call becomes easier.
D) If he always does this with AA-KK, with QQ-JJ he does it half the time, and with AK he only does this a third of the time, your equity = 38% and thus you should fold.
So, in general, if he a normal solid player getting it in here is probably pretty bad, but if you’ve seen him spew off stacks in weird spots like this with TT or AQs, then you can call.
If you’re not sure, it might be best to just fold and wait for a better spot. IOW, it depends on what hands you think he is doing this with.
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