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Old 10-19-2007, 02:34 AM
ntnBO ntnBO is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 236
Default Re: Would you fold here?

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The flop play is crucial here, and it illustrates an important concept. When the pot is big, your main goal is to protect your hand. Period. Checking and hoping that the bet comes from LP isn't good enough. The best way to protect is to face players with a bet and hope that someone soon to act after raises. Your line lets too many people in and misses value a lot of the time. (This is sort of an aside, but do you see how hard that flop is going to hit a wide range of EP limping hands and you have two EP limpers?)

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Sure, I knew that flop is going to hit just about everybody, that's what (IMO) makes this a difficult hand to play.

There are bad things that can happen with any line here. Let's say I bet out, chances are (almost) everyone is going to call increasing pot odds for future streets. Yes, if EP raises then most fold and I can 3-bet. But by the same token, I was looking for a LP bettor so I could raise the same way you mention an EP raiser.

Heck, let's look at all the possibilities.

1, above, I ck, UTG bets and all call.
a, if I C/R I am getting value but will not be able to chase out any future draw.
b, if I call I am sacrificing value but will still be able to chase out some river draws.
2, if it cks around, I can lead the turn and chase out many draws.
3, If I lead the flop and everybody calls, I am getting value but I cannot chase out any future draws.
4, If I lead the flop and someone raises, only then will draws fold.

Whichever line is chosen, the raise has to come from the right place in order to chase out any draws. I have to assume there is a break-even point between getting value and protecting your hand. I seem to remember a small section in SSHE regarding "when betting won't protect your hand", yes?

I'm not trying to be argumentative or anything, I simply don't see a line to play here that is significantly better than any other. But I do like the discussion and hope it continues in hopes of finding a good line.

BO
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