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Old 10-18-2007, 07:34 PM
ACynicalOptimist ACynicalOptimist is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 23
Default common and tough spot / hypothetical scenario

your holding: ace-high, usually decent kicker. So let's say A-7.

your opponent: thinking loose-aggressive player, doesn't pure bluff but semi-bluffs at every possible opportunity (when he thinks he has 6 outs or more, but very frequently as little as 6 outs)

the situation: you make a normal raise to steal the blinds with your hand, and he does something which, let's just say for sake of argument, gives you a very good idea of the range of his holding - i.e. in this hypothetical he only 3-bets in the small blind with the following hand range: 8-9 suited, 9-10 suited, and any 2 paint cards both suited and unsuited, as well as any pocket pair deuces through 6's, and ace-rag from A-2 to A-5. So we're assuming he has no better or worse holdings than any of these hands, and we can also assume that the Ace-x hands are less likely to be in his range since you have yourself have an ace. Also, let us assume that the by far most frequent of his range are just two off-suit of JT, QT, QJ, KJ, KQ.

The Flop: 8-rag-rag. for now let's say rainbow.
He bets, you call (maybe some would argue for raising here; I usually call and I certainly think a fold is a bad play)

A) out of the following turn cards: (7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K, A), which ones do you fold, call, or raise.
B) How would these answers change if the turn card brings a flush draw?
C) How would these answers change if the original flop contained a flush draw and the turn card put 3 of a suit on board, and you either had the 7 of that suit or 0 of that suit.

D) and now the big question I have. How would the answer change if somehow the pot were bigger than it would be under this hypothetical scenario. The reason I ask this is I often find myself unwilling to raise, say, the turn of a King, and then when the river is a Queen, I have let J-Q suck out on me, or if I fold I have let JT bluff me. At the same time, raising the turn of a K if opponent in fact has KQ or KJ would be spewy, no? Essentially I don't know when I should go into call-down mode or still try to defend against a 6-out semibluff, particularly in "larger" type pots.

Obviously I know there's no easy answer to this, but any insight would be helpful. The LAGs who constantly re-steal my ace-high hands with 2-paint type hands and intermix their turn play with semibluffs/value bets are really crushing me lately.
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