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Old 10-18-2007, 06:34 PM
PartyGirlUK PartyGirlUK is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,995
Default Re: Butchered this one 1/2

I would fold this preflop and cr the flop. PF is slightly bad imo but whatever, the flop is a must cr.

Why?

i) Equity. Given that Dough has 2 overcards almost every single time, and St1ck has 2 overcards a lot of the time (and 22,44 some of the time), you have a bunch of equity. 9 almost sure outs, + 6 possible outs in 3 way action = yum yum money in pot pls ty.

ii) You need to cr for metagame. If you aren't cring this hand here they are really gonna be able to narrow your range down in similar situations.

iii) Thin the field. If you just call, the turn will be 3 ways. And there is a pretty good chance the river will be 3 ways too. It will get checked thru a lot, and if someone bets it will be at least heads up to the river. If you cr, good things can happen such as -

-- UTG folds JT right away wary of getting trapped on flop, giving you 2 more outs.

-- UTG calls say AJ and BN folds QT

-- UTG calls AJ and BN calls QT. You fire the turn, and with BN still to act UTG pitches his Ace hi, and BN folds his Q hi (this is especially likely on turns such a King, 4 or 7. Even on a 5 you want them to fold I think)

etc.

iv) Information. You cr the flop and bet the blank turn. You get 1 or 2 callers. You can be pretty sure that a bluff is nor profitable on the river. You also know that a 5 or T is a valuebet, especially heads up. If you just check call streets, and the river is a 5 or T, you have no idea what to do. Note that by cring you narrow down their ranges and widen yours, which is an excellent result.

As it is, I like your turn bet, and the river is a definite fold, even against St1ck.
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