Re: Semibluff spot
I take a shot for raise the turn vs call the turn. I do the hypothesis the turn is a brick like a 2.
The range of sb (maybe a little tight given the read) is
55+ A4s+ A7o+ KTs+ KJo+ QJs
If Sb fold the turn, with the rake we win around 6BB.
Sb fold on the turn A9-A4 without FD. We have almost 20% of chance to hit a flush. If we hit the flush on the river Sb c/c with these hands. So if Sb fold to a raise on the turn we win 6x0.8-1x0.2=4.6BB.
A9 15 combos
A8 15 combos
A7 15 combos
A6s 3 combos
A5s 3 combos
A4s 3 combos
= 54 combos
Against A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T-4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I think we lose 3BB with a flush on the river with a call on the turn. We lose 2BB on the river and 1BB on the turn with a raise on the turn if we hit. So we lose just 0.8BB more with a raise on the turn. It is 6 combos.
I do the (optimistic) hypothesis with a raise on the turn we lose 0.6 BB against the other hands which are calling (we win 1BB more if we hit our flush). These hands are
AT 15 combos
AJ 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AA 6 combos
QQ 3 combos
TT 6 combos
99 6 combos
88 6 combos
77 6 combos
66 6 combos
55 3 combos
Qjs 3 combos
=84 combos
The following hands raise and but we can win if we hit our flush, so we loose 1.2BB with
AK 8 combos
KQ 6 combos
KTs 2 combos
= 16 combos
We are drawing dead against
KK 1 combo
JJ 3 combos
KJ 6 combos
=10 combos
We loose 2BB against these hands.
There is 170 combos and we win by raising the turn
(54*4.6-6*0.8-84*0.6-16*1.2-10*2)/170=0.9BB.
Against this range, we can suppose our FE equity is 0 if we raise the flop. So I think the line raise the flop-bet the turn is worse than call the flop and the turn.
If we can take the free card on the turn with a raise on the flop we win just 0.3 BB. But we loose around 0.7BB if there is 3bet on the flop. It is proly close with the line call the flop and the turn.
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