[Mitke]

* grunch *

Well that's some interesting "action" on the flop.

The weak UTG is betting out after flop was checked around. Could be a set or A9s/A7s that tried to go for a c/r on the flop - pretty reasonable IMO in a preflop-capped pot and the capper to his immediate left.

I think UTG is usually betting here for value. Would a weak ABC player take a stab at this pot with less than A?

HJ probably does not have an ace. If he was willing to bang his head to a raise three times with AQ he's likely to bet an ace on the flop when it is checked to him in position.

That said, we really don't know much about the hand strengh of both SB and HJ, both cold-called and have shown no strength on flop or turn.

We could raise and hope that loses both HJ and SB. However, there's only one overcard which we are worried about. FD or OESD are not folding in any case. 98 or similar could fold but that is not a very likely holding for a 3-bet cold-call preflop. Smaller pocket pairs we are not worried aboout and are probably folding anyway, as just might KK. So we can't raise for protection.

We could raise to possibly to get UTG to fold an AJ-AT or A8 -type hand - but is he that weak? On the other hand, we'd have an easy fold to a 3-bet from UTG, that's for sure or could get to showdown with the raise as he's timid.

I don't think we are ahead of UTG often enough nor can we lose the draws that most worry us anyway by raising so I don't raise.

There is a small chance UTG is taking a stab at the pot and it is probable he won't lead on the river with a hand we beat if we and one or two villains call on turn (but in online we cannot be sure?). He might be even timid enough to not bet on the river with a weak ace and give us a free showdown.

2) and doesn't overcall on the river but does crying-call in the big pot.

(Weird line usually = monster / air)