Thread: 66 vs Ultra LAG
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Old 10-17-2007, 12:41 AM
Pokey Pokey is offline
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Default Re: 66 vs Ultra LAG

If you call this flop bet you need to be COMPLETELY prepared to call ANY turn bet and ANY river bet. You're standing up for yourself, here, and sometimes you'll get lucky. Given the flop it's less likely than usual to have hit villain (because it's paired). Two random cards will hit at least a pair on an unpaired flop about 30.2% of the time; given that the flop is PAIRED, two random cards connect with the board only 19.6% of the time. That makes this a better-than-normal time to stand up to BB.

If you choose to stand up to him, you've got to be prepared. This will require:

1. A willingness to risk your entire stack.
2. A pair of brass balls.

Is this the time? Now? Are you going for it? If so, check the flop. Then call.

Then check the turn. Then call.

The check the river. At this point, if you've hit a six somewhere along the way you can check-raise all-in on the river. Otherwise, call the river bet, too.

Against an ultraLAG the only way to make money is to let HIM put it in the middle. Any bets you make will either fold him out or get called by bigger hands than yours. It's a completely -EV move to bet or raise an underpair against this guy.

Now, if you're too scared to follow through with this plan there's no shame in check/folding the flop. Just realize that flops that do not contain a six simply don't get any better than this one for standing up to an ultraLAG. He KNOWS you don't have a draw and he KNOWS that you're much less likely than usual to have connected with the flop. He sees that there's no A and there's no K, and he's going to put wicked pressure on you to fold. If you can't call ALL THE WAY DOWN, let it go now. But if you're not willing to call all the way down on a flop this good, you should probably fold pocket pairs 99- to a raise like this, because you can't take the heat OOP and heads-up.

Make your stand or don't, but be prepared for a rollercoaster if you decide now's the time. There is no hand reading involved -- it's just blind luck.
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