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Old 10-16-2007, 11:00 PM
Slim Pickens Slim Pickens is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
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Default Re: OT: [censored] thread, OCTOBER, READ RULES IN TOP POST

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Anyone taking any prop bet action against Spacegravy on his challenge?

$25K in 30 days playing $60 STT's... yeah OK

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When did this happen? It's really going to suck when people start noticing his ATC-ish SB open-shoves. Their spite-calls are going to be close to correct and it's WAY -$EV over the course of the game to shove too wide when the player to your left knows your too-wide range and calls correctly.

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I do not believe that spacegravy will successfully complete this challenge. However, most of his SNG experience is at the $16 level where several of your opponents to the left will be spite calling without even knowing it. Therefore he should be able to adapt his pushing ranges accordingly.

As for when did it happen, it's in his blog on the SNG Icons website. Slim, do you still play SNG's? I'm not even sure if you've given out your username here.

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Ah... I'll check out his blog. I don't generally read any non-bones blog entries. Why bore yourself with regular people's general angst when you can have dickrash?

As for his possible success, the difference between bad $16 accidental spite-callers and higher-level players correctly calling wide is that the bad players spew so much $EV around the table to everyone else all the time that it basically offsets when they do it to you. Good players at the 60's (or even mediocre ones a lot of the time) will adapt to a player as an individual if he's at every table of theirs for a month straight shoving ATC into their BB. What then happens is everyone loses to the rake once the blinds gte high, just as a bunch of bad players left to themselves would. The volume he'd need to put in seems doable. The ROI necessary to do it before his brain shuts down like those crazy Korean warcraft players who die in their chairs at the internet cafe doesn't seem so possible to me.

My screen name is AtomicDog239 on both Stars and Full Tilt, though I haven't played any STTs on the Stars one in almost a year. I'm seriously trying to learn cash, though I'm still in the "sucking ass" phase, so not much STT play at all lately. Also, any mistake I make in a STT now is due to general poker suckage and not STT-related suckage, so the cash route is going to improve me all-around.

EDIT: I just noticed he's setting his own odds at 2:1 against. My guess is more like 5:1 against, but that's just my unprofessional opinion. I'd love to bet it at 2:1 but I'd feel bad about winning because it seems like more of a motivator for him to play a lot than an actual +EV bet.