Re: basic probability question counter intuitive?
Okay, you're exactly right. What I've said about your formula was wrong.
What you have is literally:
P = (A + A'B) + (1 - (A + A'B))C
and how you describe it is exactly right:
= A + A'B + (1 - A - A'B)C
= A + A'B + (A' - A'B)C
= A + A'B + A'(1 - B)C
= A + A'B + A'B'C
where
A'B' = 1 - (A + A'B)
just as you said.
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