Re: National Championship
This thread seems like an appropriate place for me to cross-post from sporting events. These numbers are based entirely on Sagarin's "predictor" rating, so take them with a large grain of salt, but it's probably better than making up probabilities off the top of your head [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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And then there were six...
Like last week, I projected spreads for every remaining game for each of the six undefeateds using Sagrin's predictor ratings, then converted those spreads to *rough* win likelihoods based on spread to moneyline conversions at bookmaker.com. Here's each team's remaining schedule, odds of winning each game, and odds of winning out:
OHIO STATE:
Michigan State: 93%
@ Penn State: 76.5%
Wisconsin: 94%
Illinois: 91%
@ Michigan: 80.2%
Undefeated: 48.8%
HAWAII:
New Mexico State: 94.5%
Fresno State: 85.5%
@ Nevada: 79.5%
Boise State: 51%
Washington: 69.5%
Undefeated: 22.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA:
@ Rutgers: 68.5%
@ Connecticut: 70%
Cincinnati: 64%
@ Louisville: 75%
Syracuse: 100% (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, there are of course no sure things [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )
@ Pittsburgh: 93.5%
Undefeated: 21.5%
KANSAS:
@ Colorado: 85%
@ Texas A&M: 88%
Nebraska: 94%
@ Oklahoma State: 80%
Iowa State: 100%
Missouri (neutral field): 75%
Oklahoma (presumed Big12 Title Game opponent): 27%
Undefeated: 11.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE:
@ Virginia Tech: 51%
Florida State: 73%
@ Maryland: 60%
@ Clemson: 65.5%
Miami (FL): 81.5%
Virginia Tech (Presumed title game opponent): 61%
Undefeated: 7.3%
ARIZONA STATE:
California: 72.5%
@ Oregon: 25.5%
@ UCLA: 53%
USC: 81.2%
Arizona: 91%
Undefeated: 7.2%
And as a bonus: three one-loss teams (I'll probably calculate South Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia out later as well)
OKLAHOMA:
@ Iowa State: 100%
Texas A&M: 94%
Baylor: 100%
@ Texas Tech: 74.5%
Oklahoma State: 92.5%
Kansas (presumed opponent): 73%
One Loss: 47.3%
OREGON:
@ Washington: 83.5%
USC: 89.5%
Arizona State: 74.5%
@ Arizona: 90.5%
@ UCLA: 70.5%
Oregon State: 89%
One Loss: 31.6%
LSU:
Auburn: 79.5%
@ Alabama: 84%
Louisiana Tech: 98.5%
@ Mississippi: 91%
Arkansas: 89%
Florida (presumed opponent): 56%
One Loss: 29.8%
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