Hi Olrik -
1st betting round: What an ugly starting hand! But you get to see the flop from the unraised blind.
Fine.
2nd betting round: And then the flop has a pair of tens, making you trip tens. And you immediately wonder if one of your three opponents has a ten with a king or an ace or a holds AAXY. Might MP1 have raised before the flop with AAXY? MP1 posted and sometimes people tend to raise when they post. But MP1 didn't raise before the flop. I don't think MP1 has a pair of aces.
On to MP2. Might MP2 have raised before the flop with AAXY? MP2 has less reason to raise than MP1 and is therefore logically less likely to raise. MP2 might have AAXY.
And SP also might have AAXY.
Any of the three might have ATXY or KTXY - or just TXYZ.
At any rate you bet and get three calls.
Fine.
3rd betting round: You make a full house and low is no longer possible. Of course you plan to bet!
But then SB bets before you get a chance!
SB didn't bet the flop, and just called your bet after MP1 and MP2 also called. Why is SB betting first? It must be either (1) because SB has a monster and is afraid you won't bet, (2) because SB has made a straight and thinks nobody has a full house, or (3) because SB is making the mistake of playing too boldly.
By monster, I mean AAXY, QQXY, or ATXY. Any of these is possible for SB. SB also could have QTXY, which is easily good enough to bet.
At this point, I would just call. I would want MP1 and MP2 to also call. And if SB is doing something stupid, I want him to do it again on the fourth betting round. Finally I would call because it's not far fetched for SB to have a monster here. Here's my chart:<ul type="square">AAAQ 2
AAAT 1
AAAZ 38
AAQQ 3
AAQT 6
AAQZ 228
AATZ 114
AAZY 2109
AQQT 3
AQQZ 114
AQTZ 228
ATZY 2109
QQTZ 38
QQZY 703
QTZY 1406[/list]That all adds up to 7102, or 5696 without the QTZY.
7102/135751 is about 5%.
5696/135751 is only about 4%.
I haven't checked the math. There are a bunch of places to go wrong. It's easy to make some stupid mistake in these charts. I typed straight down, doing the math as I went. Didn't take long, maybe fifteen minutes. I'm not going to check it because the final result seems not out of line to me. Four percent seems reasonable to me as the possibility of a random hand having a better full house after the turn.
That's low enough not to be worried about before SB bets. SB might not have a hand in the 4% group that beats our full house at this point. But after SB bets, it becomes a concern. SB is betting as though he does.
Well... SB could also just be holding a ten and over-valuing it at this point. There are 1*38*37*36/6=8436 ways SB could have a ten without an ace or a queen, about 6%. But betting a lone ten at this point would seem
very poor play. SB should have bet the ten or should possibly had gone for a check-raise with the ten on the previous betting round. But SB didn't do that. Is SB stupid enough to bet two pairs, aces and queens? You know your opponents better than I do. Mine are not that stupid.
At any rate, before SB bets, a better full house than yours is very unlikely (only about 4%). But why would SB bet without one???
I cannot think of a logical reason and therefore I'm just calling it down.
4th betting round: If SB doesn't bet the river, then I'll bet it. In so doing, I'll possibly fall into a trap, but I'll figure probably SB was simply doing something strange and illogical on the turn (3rd betting round).
Buzz