Re: 4-way CB with 56s wheeeee
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You have to stack him like every time for this to be profitable.
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I think my rule-of-thumb maths must be wrong. I thought that we are nearly getting direct odds and that we don't need much in implied to make that up.
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We're getting 5.2:1 implied, and we're only 4.9:1 to hit our draw on the next card.
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If you assume he has a set, we may have better odds!
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EV vs set:
0.17*0.78*282 - 0.83*54 - 0.17*0.22*182 = -$14
EV vs a hand drawing dead if we hit (still stacking off 100%):
0.17*282 - 0.83*54 = +$3
So if villain has a set 18% of the time (or more) we can't ever call profitable. Even if he always stacks off when we hit. Unless we're counting on getting a free turn sometimes which seems unlikely.
Turning a fd will probably boost the ev of a call a bit. Not too much though.
Cliff notes: Calling is bad.
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