[DesertCat]

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I really really dont think 50% returns are sustainable. Its like the 10pt/bb winrate. Sure some guys can run there for 40 to even 70k hands but put it over any decent sample and its basically impossible expect for honestly 5-6 guys in the world. The stock market cannot allow you to see the long run so this argument is pretty pointless. Its very possible DCs gains during the years were due to positive variance and his real EV was 25% gains. Im not saying it eas or wasnt, im just saying if poker has taught me anything its to not be so results oriented if the decision was an intelligent one.

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I was definitely running hot, plus the bursting of the internet bubble was very good for my style of investing, the first couple years of my streak. Now maybe I'm running a little cool, or I'm lazy, but I'm still doing over 20%.

But in Buffetts case, I believe the reason he said he could guarantee results was arb deals. Not just merger arb, but clever high return opportunities from recapitalizations and such, including bankruptcies and high yield debt. For an example google the coffee bean arbitrage he did when he first started working for Ben Graham. It paid him a very high risk free return. The reason Buffett has an edge finding these deals is that he's reading annual reports every day, he probably reads thousands a year so he can find these very rare opportunities. I can't bring myself to do that much work.