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Old 10-16-2007, 01:15 PM
BarryLyndon BarryLyndon is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 2,590
Default Re: 20k guarentee TOP TOP

I prefer raising after a limper this early with AJo a little later (CO, button) and, if I am going to raise, to 4x or 4.5xBB to discourage action. You're getting yourself into a [censored] spot. Plus, it's hard to tell if MP1 is getting "limpy," it's 10/20, that's the first level. I don't like gauging spots with JAo here for big pots this early and deep.

Flop: There it is, that's the spot I was talking about. First, I can't imagine QQ/KK smooth calling preflop. So do you fold AJo in this spot? What does BB have based on his lead: KJ/QJ/J10/34/big diamond draw/222/555/25s. OK, what does MP1 have: probably 99/KJ/QJ/ Kd or Qd diamond draw. And you already have a J:

1. If you call, you are giving BB/MP1 odds to see a myriad of scare cards. That's the disadvantage of calling. You are very deep though

2. If you RR, BB MAY call you down with KJ/QJ/J10 for one street, but if he's cognizant, he knows he's beat. You don't know if he's cognizant or not. MP1 probably let's it go because with all the action in front of him, he's gonna let go of his weak KJ/QJ. However, chances are one of them has a monster draw / made hand. Too many of their holdings intersect, increasing the likelihood that one of them is doing well for himself. See (3).

3. Raising to 1100 (proper size), you get value against a passive flush draw, though a huge chunk of the deck is goig to kill your action. Reverse implied odds are kinduv nasty because it's going to be hard to get away from hand if he hits diamond flush/straight/Two pair/over. You're stack whittles to half unecessarily at an early level. And 4-bet would totally suck + KJo becomes wishful thinking - it's either a flip or you're beat by a set.

I think calling here is best/small ball/hope that you can play with position and keep pot small. . If you had AcAs, I'd be more empted to get it in, because you knock out from Ad5d, 34. And you can factor in AJ as a hand that you are well ahead of and that, at this level, is liable to get it in because it's TOP TOP.

Barry
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