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Old 10-16-2007, 12:11 AM
Buzz Buzz is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Default Re: $15 Horse MTT nut low and low flush on a paired board

T. Chance - Welcome to the forum. I see that Frank Nagai has already answered, but I usually like to comment before I read anyone else's answers. That way it's my own perspective, which sometimes is a different way of looking at things.

Before the flop. Betting round number 1 - Fine. You have a very nice starting hand, even though it is lacking in high card strength. (You'd much rather the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] was the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - or even the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). Still, you play the cards you're dealt, and yours are certainly better than average. You probably have the best starting hand at the table.

At the outset, it looks like you want to keep these opponents in the hand as much as possible. But that could all change after the flop.

As I'm sure you're well aware, the object of this game is to scoop. You promote your low hands into scoopers by betting so as to knock out better high hands, which you often can do. Exactly how to do this often requires some finesse rather than a "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" direct frontal assault. But sometimes you want that fullback plunge into the center of the line approach, just so as not to be too predictable.

Thus exactly what to do with this hand on the first betting round is very dependent on how your opponents will think you're playing, which is very dependent on how you have been playing.

The way you played it is fine. Some other approaches would have been fine too.

After the flop. Betting round number 2 Nice, safe, flop for you. You're almost assured of getting part of this pot. You should be thinking about how you might get all or 3/4 of it.

You see four hearts, meaning nine are missing. Thus there are 9*8/2=36 ways any one of your opponents could hold exactly two hearts plus any other two non-hearts. An opponent could also hold three or four hearts, but let's ignore that for now.

Suppose that an opponent does hold exactly two hearts (plus any two non-hearts). Do you know how often one of the two hearts your opponent holds will be higher than a ten?

The answer is 26 times out of 36. Thus the odds are 26 to 10 or about two and a half to one that if an opponent does hold exactly two hearts (plus any two non-hearts), your opponent's heart draw is better than yours.

The 10 comes from 5*4/2=10, which is the number of two card missing heart combinations with less that a ten as the higher card. Then 36-10=26 is where the 26 comes from.

At any rate, since you only have a ten high flush draw, you should think about possibly knocking out a jack, queen, or king flush draw. Is there a way to do that? If you make it a double bet to Button, will Button possibly put you on the nut flush draw and fold a jack, queen, or king flush draw?

I don't know the answer (which depends on Button's character, Button's impression of you, and the cards Button holds), but that's the promotion to scoop type thinking. You can afford to raise, because you have the nut low (and with back-up, to boot).
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, I first call because I strongly suspect I'm not the only nut low around, so my first concern was to keep the button in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]Very reasonable. Do you also now see the other play, the way to possibly promote your hand into a scooper? (rhetorical)

After the turn. Betting round number 3.
Now you've made your flush, but it would be pretty easy for an opponent to have a better one. And if so, you're stuck playing for half the pot. There's no realistic way you now can knock out an opponent with a better flush than you.

In other words, it's a lot easier to get rid of a queen high flush draw than a queen high made flush. So the window of that opportunity has closed. And with the betting, you have to seriously suspect an opponent has a higher flush than you.

So now you should be wanting to be back-peddling. You might not be back-peddling, but that's what you should want to be doing, because it looks very much as though you are headed for a quarter or a sixth of this pot. I'd simply call, hope Button does the same, and hope for the best. But it looks grim.

On the river. Betting round number 4.
And I'd do the same on the river as the turn. Looks even bleaker than after BB bet the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm also pretty sure there is at least one other nut low, and very likely there's two of them.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree.
[ QUOTE ]
When the betting first gets to me, I might get 7/8thed (would you say 7/8thed ?).

[/ QUOTE ]No. You could get quartered, sixthed, or eighthed for low. You figure to get eighthed with ace-deuce for low at a full table roughly one time per thousand, and when it happens, it's not much worse than getting sixthed, which happens somewhere in the neighborhood of one time out of sixteen (something like that, as I recall). If you somehow win the high, which is very unlikely, you'll win 3/4, 4/6, or 5/8. There is no way you can win 7/8.
[ QUOTE ]
More likely, chances are, I'm either winning 1/6th of the pot or 3 third of it.

[/ QUOTE ]I think most likely is 1/4 or 1/6.[ QUOTE ]
Do you think it is still right to bet ?

[/ QUOTE ]No. But there's enough in the pot that you call.

Buzz

P.S. After I wrote the above, but before posting, I read Frank Nagai's response to you. He would play it differently, and perhaps his way works better than mine this time. (Or perhaps not). It's at least good to consider different ways of playing a hand.

Buzz
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