[UMTerp]

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Terp the regular abusers/jerks might tee off on you here. I made a similar post about strategically saving some better teams for down and got ripped for my "short term" thinking.

Where do you do these large pools? I am looking at which sites have the easiest software as I am gonna set one up for my office next season.

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Meh, whatever. I added that note that said that the analysis was really only applicable to a "large" pool. I got into one through a co-worker 3 or 4 years ago, and it seems to grow every year. There's 467 (439 if ATL wins tonight) left of ~2400, and you wouldn't have a chance if you just used some "system" like picking the biggest favorite or biggest home favorite every week. You're simply going to be aligned with too many people:

Look at a simple case where you are one of 800 players in a pool.

You know Team A is 95% to win, and 750 people are picking them.
You know Team B is 80% to win, and 49 people are picking them.

Your equity is MUCH higher if you align yourself with Team B than Team A. (And it's even higher if you pick Team B's opponent.)

There probably is some merit to just picking the biggest favorite (or something along those lines) in a <50 player pool though.

No idea about where to get in a "big" survivor pool - just ask around I guess.