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Old 10-15-2007, 10:35 AM
[Phill] [Phill] is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Blogging Again (Again)
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Default Re: FGators: The Final Chapter [1.4m hands EV graph]

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Nobody understands what I'm folding.

Does 99 look good on a Ad Kd 9h flop?

Uh yeah.

How does it look on a Ad Kd 9h Jd turn?

Not bad, but I'm not in love with it.

How does it look on a Ad Kh 9h Jd 7d board against a guy leading for 2/3rds pot?

Looks like a fold.

Welcome to my world.

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Hey, I'm just saying that in the last year CONSISTENTLY I get flat out great flops, bad turns, and miserable rivers where by the river I cannot think of a hand that I can beat.

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First - how did you have chips left back so the river even has meaningful value.

Second - a 2/3 pot bet is pretty much an intant call in a vacuum.

Third - what the hell do you think you are beaten by? What calls a pot size bet on the flop which is now ahead? QhTh and perhaps Kd9d. Youre absolutely miles ahead most of the time here - sure a lot of hands *could* beat you, but they wont have most of them.

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So a pretty tight guy (loose passive) is randomly leading OOP into a four diamond one card straight board (or two card straight) with just a pair at $1/2 after I bet the flop and the turn?

Hey, if he's bluffing me like that after I showed aggression preflop, flop, and turn then hey yeah I suck but something tells me I just don't believe it.

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Ad Kh 9h Jd 7d board

There is a backdoor flush and random straight that came and a gutshot completed on the turn.

This hand you set out is not what you later describe. Because even you now realise the hyperthetical you origionally set out is retarded beyond belief.

I say again, if you bet pot on the flop as you should, the only hands beating you are QhTh and Kd9d, though i expect Kd9d to show strength on the flop. There is a chance of 8hTh too i suppose.

That is 3 SPECIFIC hands, suits and all, that you should be worried about from a "pretty tight guy". I havent done the math, but im pretty sure he has AK more often than those 3 specific hands, and if you include A9s and AJ floating the flop to judge your turn play when you probably backed off the hand you are MILES ahead of the hand range of a villain here.
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