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Old 10-15-2007, 09:58 AM
kroeliewoelie kroeliewoelie is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 466
Default Re: [10NL] - AA - good laydown on scary board?

This is a horrible fold. You are getting 3 to 1, so you only have to win 25% of the time to break even on a call here. There are several reasons for villain betting the river:

1) value betting Kx
2) bluffing because you look weak
3) value betting 8x,9x,Tx because he thinks you cannot possibly have a king

In the first scenario you are beaten, but in the other two you are good. And scenario 2) and 3) definitely happen more often than 25% of the time.

So instacall.
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