Re: flop check
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Once we check behind with third pair on this board, are we committing ourselves to showdown?
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Of course (I cant think of a river card I would fold, but there might be one). Think of this as manipulating the expected value. In the long run your going to extract more bets out of his bluffs than you will out of him by sucking out. You are forfeiting the ability to protect your hand for the profit you will make when he bets with air.
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flop bet isn't just to protect our hand. it is also for value. This is a drawy board, and worse hands will call us.
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a "drawy" board? i guess it does have the connected 7 and 8 but mainly it's a king high rainbow and that's it.
in actuality, based on the strength i've shown and that board it makes it a tough spot for alot of worse hands to call. he can't draw to something like a 6out overcard hand.
usually if he only calls the flop bet he has something like a gutshot which he folds after we get 1.5 bb in unless we're beat(half a big bet worse than checking the flop and calling down). if he holds an ace he's drawing to 3 outs assuming he has an overcard to my 7. he may have a pp giving him a 2 outer(he would 3bet any pp over my 7s).
given this guy and his tendencies if i check the flop he will fire the turn and river with that same gutshot, pp or complete air. in effect our money goes in as a bigger fave than simply betting the flop. we gain value from alot of his other holdings that won't peel in addition to those that would peel. not to mention we lose less when behind this way.
i would still like to know, what is your line on the turn and river if you bet the flop? what are you doing if raised on any street?
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Well, the board isn't super drawy. but 112/1081 of his holdings do give him a straight draw that has between 4-14 outs on you. Some others give him six outs which is almost worth protecting your hand against in a 5sb pot
If you know he will bet turn and river with an extremely high frequency regardless of his holdings, then you DO have an easy decision to check.
If I play it the other way and bet flop, and get CRed, I calldown unless a straight card comes off and I don't improve.
I will fold most turn cards to a CR as well.
If turn and river are 2, and then 3, I valuebet river.
I can't enumerate everything, but you get the idea.
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