Re: Results and thoughts
"I also disagree to some degree that he never folds a pair."
i talked at length about this with howmany and you guys were both making the mistake of thinking this guy just because he's not terrible will think on level 2 and 3 like you do and fold 66 or 55 (the only pairs he could have i think) after calling the turn. in my experience it takes a very skilled player to make that sophisticated a play (call the turn, fold the river) with a pp. not likely, and nowhere likely enough given the size of the pot. overestimating metahand is also a matter of giving your opponents too much credit. this is 10-20 dont get crazy overthinking it.
it's not very close. he has some sort of nonsense flush draw hands like 97s, something he couldnt reraise but felt inclined to play because you raise a lot and it's 5 handed and he has the button. (keep your read of their thoughts simple). either he paired the river card, or even the turn or flop or he didnt. he will sometimes check that pair on the river and when he bets you are toast way more often than your A high is good. people dont tend to bluff the river when their opponent pounded the pot oop every chance they got. so youre not checking the river to induce a bluff, youre checking to fold because it looks like youre checking to call.
this hand is pretty simple. the flop play is interesting but should be the sort of play in the arsenal of any decent player. button's most likely hand is a draw so making him pay to draw is critical.
probably wont look back here but those are most of my thoughts.
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