Re: 500NL LIVE: KK UTG+1
ok, I'm new to this thread and only halfway through the book, but I don't get how this this line of thought meshes with the actual play of the hand:
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the math was explained but got cut from PNL1. max effective odds vs. lrr are 10-to-1. you're 7.5-to-1 to hit a set or better. if > 1/3 of the time you hit you only get the continuation bet of say $100 instead of the full $450 then you're getting under 8-to-1 on your money effective odds wise. this sidesteps a couple cases like what happens on ace-high flops when lrr has kings - that is, it assumes set farmer doesn't take a big share of those pots, but remember when you fire on an ace-high flop and opponent has it you lose money so those balance a bit. so set farmer doesn't extract appreciably from the AA/KK/AK player.
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This would make sense if the plan was to bet/fold, but it's not. It's to bet/shove.
It also seem odd that you're using the presence of an A as a mechanism for avoiding paying off sets. That seems counterproductive.
What am I missing?
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