[Berge20]

I don't disagree with that assessment necessarily. It is true in certain districts across the country, particularly suburban areas that were once Republican strongholds that have shifted significantly the last 5 years.

Seats like Ohio 15 (Pryce), Illinois 11 (Weller), Minnesota 3 (Ramstad) are clearly going to be difficult fights for the incumbant and may well have led to them choosing to retire.

Certainly there may be other districts in similar situations, but I haven't seen the numbers to suggest that beyond a handful of districts that the main reason Republican incumbents are retiring is because they read the tea leaves as being unable to win in their district as D$D suggested.

A Ray LaHood or Dennis Hastert would win if they sought re-election. So would a Ralph Regula or Chip Pickering.